Back to the episode map

Evergreen

California Property Insurance Reform Tracker

Track California wildfire models, reinsurance-cost rules, coverage commitments, FAIR Plan actions, public-model development, and proposals by legal state.

Aug 4, 20266 min readBy Dalton Anderson

California Property Insurance Reform Tracker

As of July 28, 2026, California permits defined use of reviewed forward-looking wildfire catastrophe models and net reinsurance costs within a regulatory framework tied to insurer writing commitments in wildfire-distressed areas. The FAIR Plan has undergone assessment, financing, examination, and proposed governance reform. A public wildfire catastrophe model has been authorized but is still in development preparation.

Announcement, adoption, effective law, model review, filing, approval, commitment, issued policy, litigation, and observed market outcome are not the same state.

This tracker is educational and may lag controlling law. Open the source and verify the effective date before relying on an entry.

How to read the tracker

Begin with the date. It tells you when an agency, court, lawmaker, insurer, or plan took an action. It does not tell you when every customer felt the result.

Next, read the state. A proposed bill is not a law. A final rule can exist before an insurer files under it. A filing can exist before the Department approves it. An approved rate can exist before a policy is offered. A public promise can exist before market data shows whether the promise was met.

Then open the source. A news release can explain the goal of a reform. The rule, statute, order, filing, or court record controls the legal effect. An agency data page can show a later result, but only for its stated measure and date.

Keep the measures apart. Policy count is not exposure. Exposure is not premium. Premium is not expected loss. An assessment is not reinsurance. A model review is not a rate approval. An insurer commitment is not a bound policy.

Use the last column to find the missing proof. If that proof could change your decision, stop at the official record and seek qualified help.

Ownership and update rule

The named editorial owner is Dalton Anderson. Before public launch, a California insurance regulatory and legal reviewer must approve the current entries, update method, and changelog.

The tracker should be reviewed monthly and whenever the Department, FAIR Plan, Legislature, court, model-review process, rate-filing record, or official market data changes.

flowchart LR
    A["Policy announcement"] --> B["Rule, statute, or order"]
    B --> C["Effective date"]
    C --> D["Model review, filing, or commitment"]
    D --> E["Approval and implementation"]
    E --> F["Issued coverage and market data"]
    F --> G["Measured outcome and legal status"]

Status key

StateMeaning
AdoptedFinal rule, statute, or order exists
EffectiveLegal effective date has arrived
ReviewedA defined model or submission completed a review process
FiledAn insurer or entity submitted a filing or commitment
ApprovedThe regulator approved the defined filing or action
ImplementingOperational work is underway
ProposedLegislation or policy has been announced but not established as effective law
DisputedLitigation, hearing, appeal, or contested interpretation remains
ObservedDated market or operating data exists after implementation

Dated tracker

DateTopicAction and current stateWhat it does not yet prove
2024-12-13Wildfire catastrophe modelsCalifornia announced enforcement of its catastrophe-model regulation and coverage-commitment frameworkAccuracy for every model, rate, portfolio, property, or future market outcome
2024-12-30Net cost of reinsuranceDepartment finalized its regulation for the OAL process and linked use to coverage commitmentsApproval of any specific insurer cost, allocation, rate, or issued policy
2025-02-11FAIR Plan assessmentCommissioner's Order 2025-1 approved a $1 billion member-insurer assessmentReinsurance recovery, final consumer treatment, or complete financial outcome
2025-07-24First model reviewDepartment completed review of the first forward-looking wildfire catastrophe modelApproval of every model or every insurer filing
2025-10Public wildfire modelSB 429 was signed to establish a public-model programA completed model available for current ratemaking or property decisions
2026-01-01Consumer and wildfire lawsA package of new laws took effect, including wildfire grants, discounts, claims, non-renewal, and FAIR Plan financial provisionsUniform implementation or outcome across every insurer, claim, property, and program
2026-02-02Make It FAIR ActCommissioner and Assemblymember announced proposed FAIR Plan legislationEnactment or current legal effect without a legislative-status check
2026-03-25Public-model procurementDepartment released a Request for Expertise for a university-led consortiumModel completion, validation, regulatory use, or a public loss tool
2026-07-23Insurer commitmentsDepartment reported additional homeowner and commercial groups committing to expandFinal filing approval, actual bound policy count, duration, price, or reversal of FAIR Plan growth

Catastrophe-model regulation

The Department's Sustainable Insurance Strategy says insurers using specified catastrophe-model or reinsurance-cost treatment must make commitments to write policies in wildfire-distressed areas.

The Department completed review of the first wildfire model in July 2025. The release described an 85 percent writing commitment measured against statewide market share in distressed areas.

The regulation, reviewed model version, insurer filing, approved rate, written-policy evidence, and enforcement record remain separate documents. A reviewed model is not a regulator guarantee of every output.

Net cost of reinsurance

The Department's December 2024 release describes the finalized net-cost-of-reinsurance regulation and the writing commitment connected to its use.

Reinsurance is contract-specific. A public tracker cannot determine whether a cost is allowable, allocated correctly, or approved in a particular filing. That requires the regulation, instructions, filing, actuarial support, intervenor record, decision, and current law.

FAIR Plan assessment and oversight

Commissioner's Order 2025-1 approved a $1 billion FAIR Plan member-insurer assessment after the January wildfire and wind losses:

https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0250-insurers/0500-legal-info/0700-commissioners-orders/upload/Order-No-2025-1-Approving-the-California-FAIR-Plan-Association-s-Request-to-Issue-Assessment.pdf

The Department later described reserves, reinsurance, assessment responsibility, and conditions in its February 2025 action.

The FAIR Plan's current statistics page reported $750 billion in exposure as of March 2026. Exposure is not premium, expected loss, claim payment, reserve, assessment, or capital.

In February 2026, the Department announced the proposed Make It FAIR Act after an examination. A proposal must be checked against the Legislature's current bill record before being described as enacted.

Public wildfire model

California authorized a public wildfire catastrophe-model program through SB 429 in 2025.

The Department's public-model page says it released a Request for Expertise on March 25, 2026, received responses through June 22, and anticipated issuing a grant in October 2026.

As of this review, the program was preparing the university-led development structure. The tracker must not imply that a completed public model was available.

Coverage commitments and market evidence

On July 23, 2026, the Department reported new insurer expansion commitments, including homeowner groups and two commercial insurers.

That is current Department-reported evidence of filings and commitments. To measure outcome, the tracker still needs approved filing status, effective date, actual new and renewed policy counts, geography, exposure, premium, cancellations, non-renewals, FAIR Plan movement, and a consistent baseline.

Changelog

Review dateChange
2026-07-28Initial review-ready tracker created from Department, FAIR Plan, NAIC, and episode sources

The next scheduled review is August 28, 2026. A material official update should trigger an earlier review.

This page was developed with AI assistance from the E053 transcript and linked primary sources, then structured for continuous California legal, regulatory, actuarial, data, consumer-protection, and editorial review. It is not legal, regulatory, rate, coverage, market, or investment advice.

Sources

Follow the evidence.

  1. insurance.ca.gov: commercialguideinsurance.ca.gov
  2. content.naic.org: catastrophe models propertycontent.naic.org
  3. content.naic.org: reinsurancecontent.naic.org
  4. insurance.ca.gov: public wildfire modelinsurance.ca.gov
  5. daltonanderson.ghost.io: ca wildfires insurance crisis expert analysisdaltonanderson.ghost.io
  6. insurance.ca.gov: 07 lasliinsurance.ca.gov
  7. safelease.comsafelease.com
  8. insurance.ca.gov: Order No 2025 1 Approving the California FAIR Plan Association s Request to Issue Assessmentinsurance.ca.gov
  9. ibhs.org: wildfire prepared homeibhs.org
  10. usfa.fema.gov: protecting structures from wildfire embers and fire exposuresusfa.fema.gov
  11. fire.ca.gov: eaton firefire.ca.gov
  12. insurance.ca.gov: release005 2026insurance.ca.gov
  13. insurance.ca.gov: res ins guideinsurance.ca.gov
  14. daltonanderson.net: ca wildfires insurance crisis expert analysisdaltonanderson.net
  15. open.spotify.com: 4TTlp65UK2Dl3zYtgkCklsopen.spotify.com
  16. fema.gov: fema rsl marshall mat homeowners guide to reducing wildfire risk through defensible space 042025fema.gov
  17. insurance.ca.gov: California FAIR Planinsurance.ca.gov
  18. insurance.ca.gov: release079 2025insurance.ca.gov
  19. safelease.com: safelease launches facility insurancesafelease.com
  20. insurance.ca.gov: Sustainable Insurance Strategyinsurance.ca.gov
  21. cfpnet.com: key statistics datacfpnet.com
  22. insurance.ca.gov: release065 2024insurance.ca.gov
  23. podcastrepublic.net: 1494964342podcastrepublic.net
  24. insurance.ca.gov: Insurance surge expanding options for Cainsurance.ca.gov
  25. insurance.ca.gov: 5 residentialinsurance.ca.gov
  26. youtu.be: BUVy0xxL6tgyoutu.be
  27. insurance.ca.gov: release052 2025insurance.ca.gov
  28. fire.ca.gov: palisades firefire.ca.gov
California Property Insurance Reform Tracker