Research Note
Decision Journal Schema
A useful journal captures the decision before memory and outcome rewrite it. The record needs a stable decision ID, date, owner, decision, deadline, context, alternatives
Decision Journal Schema
A useful journal captures the decision before memory and outcome rewrite it. The record needs a stable decision ID, date, owner, decision, deadline, context, alternatives, evidence sources, unknowns, base rates, probability estimates, assumptions, affected people, authority, constraints, harm analysis, controls, premortem, dissent, chosen option, reasons, review date, and stop rule.
The journal should be proportionate. A reversible low-risk choice may need a short record. A costly, irreversible, regulated, safety-sensitive, or people-affecting decision needs more evidence and review.
The later outcome review should append rather than overwrite. Preserve the original probability and reasoning, add the observed result, note surprises, evaluate calibration, and record the next rule.
The schema is not financial, legal, medical, employment, or regulatory advice. Domain-specific decisions require their governing controls.
Sources
Follow the evidence.
- WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
- Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
- WSOP official media guidewsop.com
- Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
- WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
- Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
- Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
- Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com