Decision Quality and Outcome Bias Evidence Record

Decision Quality and Outcome Bias Evidence Record

Baron and Hershey's 1988 studies gave participants descriptions of decisions under uncertainty with different outcomes. Participants rated decision quality and decision makers more favorably when outcomes were favorable, even when the information available at decision time was held constant.

A 2023 replication and extension reported evidence consistent with the original outcome-bias result. This supports the narrower claim that knowledge of outcomes can distort evaluations of prior decisions.

It does not support ignoring outcomes. Results can reveal missing evidence, weak controls, poor calibration, repeated failure, or a changed environment. The correct separation is sequence: reconstruct the ex ante decision first, then use the outcome as new evidence.

Good process also does not excuse negligence, conflicts, omitted evidence, foreseeable harm, missing authority, or failure to follow required controls.