Research Note
Decision Review Protocol
A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, eviden
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Decision Review Protocol
A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, evidence, uncertainties, probabilities, assumptions, constraints, affected people, authority, foreseeable harms, controls, stop rules, and dissent.
The reviewer then evaluates process quality without the outcome. Did the team define the problem correctly, seek relevant evidence, compare realistic alternatives, identify uncertainty, assign authority, and plan recovery?
Only after that review should the outcome be opened. Compare the result with the predicted range, inspect surprises, distinguish luck from a process defect, and update future rules.
The protocol is not a way to defend a preferred decision. It requires evidence that existed before the outcome and makes missing documentation count against confidence.
Sources
Follow the evidence.
- WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
- Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
- WSOP official media guidewsop.com
- Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
- WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
- Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
- Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
- Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com