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Decision Review Protocol

A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, eviden

Research Note

A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, eviden

Aug 4, 20261 min readBy Dalton Anderson
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Decision Review Protocol

A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, evidence, uncertainties, probabilities, assumptions, constraints, affected people, authority, foreseeable harms, controls, stop rules, and dissent.

The reviewer then evaluates process quality without the outcome. Did the team define the problem correctly, seek relevant evidence, compare realistic alternatives, identify uncertainty, assign authority, and plan recovery?

Only after that review should the outcome be opened. Compare the result with the predicted range, inspect surprises, distinguish luck from a process defect, and update future rules.

The protocol is not a way to defend a preferred decision. It requires evidence that existed before the outcome and makes missing documentation count against confidence.

Sources

Follow the evidence.

  1. Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
  2. Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
  3. Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com
  4. Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  5. Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  6. NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
  7. Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
  8. WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
  9. WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
  10. WSOP official media guidewsop.com