Research Note

Decision Review Protocol

A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, eviden

Aug 4, 20261 min readBy Dalton Anderson
In this article

Decision Review Protocol

A decision review should freeze the evidence available at decision time before discussing the result. Record the decision statement, owner, deadline, alternatives, evidence, uncertainties, probabilities, assumptions, constraints, affected people, authority, foreseeable harms, controls, stop rules, and dissent.

The reviewer then evaluates process quality without the outcome. Did the team define the problem correctly, seek relevant evidence, compare realistic alternatives, identify uncertainty, assign authority, and plan recovery?

Only after that review should the outcome be opened. Compare the result with the predicted range, inspect surprises, distinguish luck from a process defect, and update future rules.

The protocol is not a way to defend a preferred decision. It requires evidence that existed before the outcome and makes missing documentation count against confidence.

Sources

Follow the evidence.

  1. WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
  2. Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  3. Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
  4. WSOP official media guidewsop.com
  5. Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
  6. WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
  7. Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
  8. Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  9. NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
  10. Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com

From this episode

Two useful next steps.

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Venture Step E015: Thinking in Bets and Decisions

Dalton Anderson revisits Thinking in Bets and turns its lesson about luck, outcomes, and uncertainty into a practical decision-review method.

Evergreen · 1 min

Decision quality depends on process not outcome alone

A favorable outcome can come from a weak decision. A sound decision can produce an unfavorable result. Decision quality therefore depends on what was known, assumed, cons

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