Research Note
Dot-Com and AI Disruption Research Note
The durable comparison separates technology adoption, company value capture, and asset price.
In this article
Dot-Com and AI Disruption Research Note
The durable comparison separates technology adoption, company value capture, and asset price.
The NBER study of internet stock pricing documents prices high relative to fundamentals and a market mechanism involving optimistic investors, short-sale constraints, and increasing sellers. FRED's Nasdaq Composite preserves the price series.
The Census Bureau estimated fourth-quarter 1999 retail e-commerce at 0.6 percent of retail, while its first-quarter 2026 estimate was 16.9 percent. BLS reports that high-tech employment took until 2013 to regain its 2000 level.
The historical record supports continued adoption after a crash. It does not predict an AI crash, timing, company survival, or investment return.
Sources
Follow the evidence.
- NIST AI RMF Measure guidanceairc.nist.gov
- human-AI interaction appendixairc.nist.gov
- current leadership pageen-us.thebigword.com
- Companies Housefind-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk
- FRED's Nasdaq Composite seriesfred.stlouisfed.org
- WordSynk 2.0 support noticesupport.thebigword.com
- official WordSynk pagethebigword.com
- high-tech employment analysisbls.gov
- 2026 AI business-use analysiscensus.gov
- early e-commerce measurement recordcensus.gov
- current retail e-commerce releasecensus.gov
- tabletop exercise packagecisa.gov
- 2025 to 2026 funding rulesgov.uk
- privately funded apprenticeship guidancegov.uk
- provider guide to delivering high-quality apprenticeshipsgov.uk
- employer guidegov.uk
- whole-problem mapping guidancegov.uk
- ISO 17100 recordiso.org
- Gould's current professional profilelinkedin.com
- service-blueprinting guidancelocal.gov.uk
- DotCom Manianber.org
- NIST: Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework, Generative Artificial Intelligence Profilenist.gov
- NIST Cybersecurity Framework 2.0nist.gov
- AI-washing statementsec.gov
- cybersecurity governance and incident-disclosure rulesec.gov