Premortem Protocol

Premortem Protocol

A premortem asks a team to assume that a proposed decision failed and explain why. The method uses prospective hindsight to surface failure causes before commitment.

Run it after the decision and alternatives are clear but before final approval. Give participants quiet time to write independent failure stories. Collect causes before debate so authority and group dynamics do not erase weak signals.

Convert each material cause into an indicator, preventive control, owner, deadline, response, and stop or exit rule. Record which risks are accepted and by whom.

A premortem does not prove that every risk was found. It can produce vivid but unlikely stories, anchor a team on failure, or become performative. Pair it with evidence, base rates, security and safety methods where relevant, dissent, and later review.