Research Note
Startup Idea Evidence Record
No checklist proves that a startup idea is good. The ledger converts an attractive explanation into assumptions, evidence, disconfirmation, and a next test.
Startup Idea Evidence Record
Core rule
No checklist proves that a startup idea is good. The ledger converts an attractive explanation into assumptions, evidence, disconfirmation, and a next test.
YC's official Startup School index includes Jared Friedman's talk on getting and evaluating startup ideas. It is attributed venture-building advice, not a validated scoring model.
https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/startup-school-videos
Claim ledger
| Claim | Evidence sought | Weak substitute |
|---|---|---|
| User | Specific role, situation, segment, and repeated access | A broad demographic label |
| Problem | Frequency, consequence, current workflow, and trigger | Founder annoyance alone |
| Alternative | Competitor, manual process, delay, internal build, or doing nothing | Claiming no competition |
| Demand | Time, data, access, budget, pre-commitment, usage, payment, or referral | Praise or survey intent alone |
| Buyer | Decision role, budget owner, procurement, and switching authority | User enthusiasm without buying authority |
| Market | Buyer count, current spend, reachable wedge, and bottom-up assumptions | A large top-down category |
| Timing | Specific technology, rule, cost, behavior, or distribution change | "AI is growing" |
| Feasibility | Data, integration, workflow, delivery, support, and failure handling | A polished prototype |
| Economics | Price, cost to serve, sales cycle, margin, capital, and retention | Revenue without costs |
| Constraints | Regulation, rights, privacy, security, safety, and procurement | Treating compliance as later work |
| Founder fit | Insight, access, trust, skills, motivation, and gaps | Prestige or identity |
Evidence types
Behavior is usually stronger than opinion. Existing workarounds, repeated pain, budget allocation, data access, procurement effort, paid tests, sustained use, retention, and referrals can support different parts of the thesis.
None proves the whole business. A paid pilot may support willingness to pay while revealing that delivery costs are unsustainable.
The SBA explains market research and competitive analysis as ways to investigate demand, market size, location, saturation, pricing, competitors, barriers, and customer behavior.
https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/plan-your-business/market-research-competitive-analysis
The Census Business Builder can supply selected U.S. demographic and economic context.
https://www.census.gov/data/data-tools/cbb.html
Public datasets must still be checked for geography, period, definition, suppression, sampling, revision, and fit to the actual buyer.
Test selection
Rank assumptions by fatality and uncertainty. Test the assumption that could kill the idea and is least supported.
Possible tests include source research, workflow observation, problem interviews, landing-page measurement, a manual concierge service, a prototype, a request for data access, a letter of intent, a paid pilot, or a narrow operational simulation.
The test must be ethical and proportionate. Money, private data, vulnerable users, employment, health, safety, regulated services, or binding commitments require appropriate authority and review.
Decision
Record what happened, including negative evidence. Separate unexpected behavior from interpretation.
The outcome should be continue, narrow, revise, change the buyer, change the delivery model, pause, or stop. "Completed the checklist" is not an outcome.
The next test should target the weakest remaining critical assumption, not the most exciting feature to build.
Sources
Follow the evidence.
- ycombinator.com: startups for students guideycombinator.com
- census.gov: cbbcensus.gov
- SBA: Market Research and Competitive Analysissba.gov
- ycombinator.com: harj taggarycombinator.com
- sba.gov: launch your businesssba.gov
- ycombinator.com: why should i start a startupycombinator.com
- sus-raw-sso-authenticated.ycombinator.com: faqsus-raw-sso-authenticated.ycombinator.com
- sba.gov: write your business plansba.gov
- ycombinator.com: startup school videosycombinator.com
- youtu.be: Um09r7L0IJ8youtu.be