Research Note

Thinking in Bets Book Record

The full title is *Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts* by Annie Duke. Portfolio published the hardcover and ebook on February 6,

Aug 4, 20261 min readBy Dalton Anderson

Source conversation

Bet on Yourself: A Review of Annie Duke's 'Thinking in Bets'

Summary In this episode, Dalton reviews the book 'Thinking in Bets' by Annie Duke, a professional poker player turned decision-making expert. He discusses key concepts such as thinking in bets, understanding probability and risk, avoiding cognitive biases, and embracing uncertainty. Dalton emphasizes the importance of separating decisions from outcomes and the need to continuously improve decision-making skills. He also explores the concept of luck versus skill and the value of truth-seeking groups for self-improvement. In this conversation, Dalton discusses the importance of truth-seeking conversations and the need to separate decisions from outcomes. He emphasizes the value of focusing on positive outcomes and good decisions, rather than dwelling on negative outcomes. Dalton also explores the concept of Night Jerry versus Day Jerry, highlighting the importance of considering the long-term consequences of our actions. He shares personal stories and examples to illustrate these concepts and concludes by recommending the book 'Thinking in Bets' by Annie Duke.

Back to the episode hub

Thinking in Bets Book Record

The full title is Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke. Portfolio published the hardcover and ebook on February 6, 2018. The publisher lists a 288-page paperback published May 7, 2019.

The book's central practical argument is that a good outcome does not prove a good decision and a bad outcome does not prove a bad decision. Decisions made under uncertainty should be evaluated using the information, alternatives, probabilities, and process available at the time.

Dalton's E015 transcript values the book's stories and applies the argument to his own decisions. The public profile should preserve that viewpoint while distinguishing publisher framing, Dalton's reading, original research on outcome bias, and the book's illustrative cases.

Annie Duke was discussed, not interviewed. This is a book record, not a guest profile.

Sources

Follow the evidence.

WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
WSOP official media guidewsop.com
Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com