Research Note
Thinking in Bets Book Record
The full title is *Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts* by Annie Duke. Portfolio published the hardcover and ebook on February 6,
In this article
Thinking in Bets Book Record
The full title is Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke. Portfolio published the hardcover and ebook on February 6, 2018. The publisher lists a 288-page paperback published May 7, 2019.
The book's central practical argument is that a good outcome does not prove a good decision and a bad outcome does not prove a bad decision. Decisions made under uncertainty should be evaluated using the information, alternatives, probabilities, and process available at the time.
Dalton's E015 transcript values the book's stories and applies the argument to his own decisions. The public profile should preserve that viewpoint while distinguishing publisher framing, Dalton's reading, original research on outcome bias, and the book's illustrative cases.
Annie Duke was discussed, not interviewed. This is a book record, not a guest profile.
Sources
Follow the evidence.
- Brier probability-forecast verification paperjournals.ametsoc.org
- Prospective hindsight studyonlinelibrary.wiley.com
- Spotify episodeopen.spotify.com
- Outcome-bias replication and extensionspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Outcome bias in decision evaluationpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- NFL account of the Malcolm Butler interceptionnfl.com
- Thinking in Bets publisher recordpenguinrandomhouse.com
- WSOP report on the 2010 heads-up championshipwsop.com
- WSOP Tournament of Champions historywsop.com
- WSOP official media guidewsop.com